Stormy Days Ahead Means Possible High Water
After a pleasant respite for many this weekend (there were some hit or miss storms but many were dry) our weather pattern has turned unsettled again as we start a new week. This time it's a series of fronts across the Great Lakes that will take until Thursday to push through our area. The heat and humidity became quite noticeable yesterday as we reached our first 90 degree day since July 14. Today was just about as hot and that along with some upper level disturbances ahead of those fronts helped set off some storms. Not everyone saw rain today but some areas near and west of the Ohio River had 2 rounds. All that settled down after sundown but more is on the way for Tuesday and Wednesday.
A line of storms north of I-70 ahead of one of those fronts will drop south toward us overnight. It will weaken, and many of our models weaken it completely. That may be a bit generous, and some isolated showers/storms may develop around or even before dawn around here. Those will move out later in the morning but more will reform in the afternoon as we head up into the muggy 80s again. Unlike today when storms died off after sundown, we may see them increase Tuesday night as a stronger disturbance moves in ahead of that front. With some wind energy present a couple of storms could turn severe with gusty winds and hail, especially north of I-64. In addition, very heavy rain may train ahead of that front and could lead to localized high water.
We'll still be south of the front Wednesday which will mean more showers and storms likely. Depending on how much falls Tuesday and where the flash flood threat could be quite high for some areas. Storms could once again be severe in a few areas as well.
We should finally push the deeper moisture south Thursday although some isolated showers may still develop. Overall, though, Thursday should be calmer around here...but it appears short-lived. Another trough will set up over the Ohio Valley by this weekend and next week and will lead to increasing shower and storm chances once again, especially by Sunday and Monday...so we may be dealing with a high water risk this time next week as well.