1:00 P.M. Friday Update:
The Ohio River Forecast Center and National Weather Service just released an updated forecast for the Ohio River.
Forecast crests have been lowered some and the time of crest has been slowed down by several hours.
Pomeroy is still forecast to crest late Monday about a foot to foot and a half above where it reached this past Monday.
Point Pleasant and Racine are now forecast to experience a similar crest level to what occurred in this last event.
Huntington is forecast to be around a foot higher than the last event by Tuesday afternoon. Ashland is forecast to reach a similar crest to this past Monday.
It is important to remember that this is a forecast based on projected rainfall. Since the rain hasn't actually materialized, the forecast crests are subject to revision up or down. Be prepared if you have interests near the Ohio River and monitor
forecasts through the weekend.
Heavy rain caused streams and creeks to overflow in Southeast Ohio Thursday and malfunctioning pumps resulted in much of the town of New Boston in Scioto County becoming swamped by water. The weather calmed down yesterday afternoon and overnight but a new batch of rain along a warm front is approaching that same saturated area. This rain isn't as heavy as the round yesterday but a quick half to 3/4" of rainfall could cause renewed problems in some of the same areas that experienced them 24 hours ago.
This round of showers will fade as it lifts northeast and may just barely scrape through Huntington and Charleston. Then temperatures will soar into the 70s after the brief hiatus yesterday with strong southwest winds gusting to 30 mph or higher at times. Some isolated showers or storms may pop up as the humidity climbs again (it will feel almost Summer-like this afternoon) but nothing organized is expected.
Unfortunately more rounds of showers and storms return tonight as that front lifts back north...and yet another round will arrive likely around midday or early afternoon Saturday. These rounds of rain may flood streams and creeks in areas that they hit so we'll watch that carefully. The most organized area of rain arrives Saturday night...possibly as a squall line ahead of a strong cold front. This line will bring heavy rain but also possible some high winds Saturday night into early Sunday morning as it tracks through. The faster it moves the less rain we get...but conversely it would mean more wind and power outages.
Once the front crosses the weather calms down Sunday but the Ohio River and feeder rivers and creeks flowing into it will rise...and keep rising into Monday and Tuesday. How high the river goes is dependent on how much rain falls...not just here but up north between Route 50 and I-70 along the upper Ohio River basin. If 2-3+ inches falls there between now and Sunday we are likely looking at a higher crest along the Ohio than what was experienced early this week...perhaps by 2 to 4 feet in some locations. That would be devastating to the community of Pomeroy where lower levels of many businesses were swamped by flood waters this past Sunday and Monday. If only 1-2" of rain falls up north...the Ohio River will still go into flood at all points...but the crest would be lower than the current forecast.
The best advice is to prepare for a more severe flood than was experienced this last time...and hope that less rain occurs and the river crest stays below what we just experienced.