Eyewitness News Storm Team Weather


DISCUSSION:

Clouds Hang Tough Tonight...Finally A Bit of Sunshine On Thursday Afternoon...

Good Wednesday, everyone! We saw another dreary day today, as low-clouds and chilly conditions persisted across the Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachians region. Although the upper-level low shifted further east...a moist, northwesterly flow in the lower atmosphere kept the drab-looking skies around. Fortunuately, though...the rainfall backed off a little bit, but will that be the case for the remainder of the work-week? Is there a spring-like warmup coming next week!? Here is your complete and detailed, seven-day forecast...

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy and chilly with patchy drizzle possible, especially east of Charleston into the mountains. Low: 40.

Synopsis: Although the upper-level low has shifted eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast...a moist, northwesterly, 'upslope-flow' in it's wake continues to bank some low-level moisture up against the Appalachians. This means that low-clouds are hanging tough over much of the region and even some drizzle, too...especially in the mountains where the air is forced to rise more due to the rugged terrain. However...not seeing rain as heavy and/or widespread like yesterday, though, as the moisture is shallower in the atmosphere, plus stronger, upper-air disturbances rotating around the parent low-pressure are lacking. With these low stratus clouds tonight...most places along I-64 will only drop into the lower 40s. However...some of the short-run models, most notably the HRRR, suggest even shallower moisture across the far western counties (Scioto, OH, Lewis, KY, Greenup, KY for example and to name a few)...so some of these stratus clouds there may break down a little bit. If so...A touch or two of patchy frost may occur across the far western counties by dawn Thursday; you may want to protect the cold-sensitive plants in those locations to be on the safe side.

THURSDAY: After cloudy skies and perhaps some mountain drizzle during the 1st half of the day, clouds slowly breaking for a bit of sunshine in the afternoon. High: 55. Patchy frost possible in the valleys overnight.

Synopsis: The upper-level low will continue to move away slowly towards the east...but still not fast enough to lessen it's effects on the region indirectly at least. On the backside of this large, sluggish system...a broad northwesterly flow will continue in the lower atmosphere. With moisture coming down from Lake Erie and running into the higher terrain...these FORCED rising air-motions will keep the low, stratus clouds around for the 1st half of the day. This especially looks true from the Ohio River and east...where the frictional effects of the rugged terrain are normally the greatest. While some drizzle may occur area-wide with this mechanism in place...it looks like the deeper moisture, along with the best rising air-motions, will be over the higher terrain. As a result...the mountains should have the best chance of seeing some early drizzle. Otherwise, with a high-pressure nudging in from the lower Ohio Valley during the day, expecting the low, stratus clouds to slowly give way to a bit of sunshine...especially in a west to east fashion in the afternoon. While some sunshine is welcome during the day...the clearer skies at night will allow for a chilly one into Friday morning. In fact, with little, if any, wind, low dewpoints and mostly clear skies...Patchy Frost is a good bet for many valley locations towards dawn Friday, so you may want to protect the cold-sensitive plants.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy and milder with a spotty sprinkle possible late in the day. High: 64.

Synopsis: While the morning looks to start chilly, as a high-pressure will be nearby...the afternoon will see a nice warm-up thanks to some sunshine and a slight, southwesterly breeze developing. This will be in response to a shortwave trough and a warm-front nearing from the northwest. Although these features should induce rising air motions...the moisture looks very limited and disjointed, so not too sold on rainfall chances. Models show the best low-level moisture arriving by 5-8 PM...but the mid-level moisture is gone by then; as a result of these differences, have opted to only include a chance of a sprinkle. All told...a pretty decent way to end the work-week, especially in comparison to where we've been.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy, warm and breezy with an isolated PM shower possible. High: 69.

Synopsis: Yesterday, this day looked dry per most of the models...however, the recent model runs have shifted a stronger shortwave trough further south into the Great Lakes; although this feature won't directly impact us...a front associated it with it looks to near from the northwest late. The moisture, instability and energy along this front doesn't look too impressive, though...but nonetheless, an isolated PM shower or two cannot be ruled out. An increasing pressure gradient (change in pressure over a given distance), however, will allow for a breezy day before the front nears by evening time.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny, comfortable and quiet. High: 65.

Synopsis: With the front moving away towards our southeast...the winds will turn out of the northwest. As a result...expecting a cooler day than what was expected yesterday. Fortunately, though, with mass convergence aloft (air coming together in the upper atmosphere) behind the upper-level trough in the Northeast...the air will sink over our region and allow for a high-pressure to move overhead. With the dry and stable airmass in place due to this feature...the day looks quiet with a good amount of sunshine!

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, very warm and breezy. High: 79.

Synopsis: Models show the high-pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast on this day...so expecting the winds to turn more out of the south along it's western flank. With the airmass still very dry and stable, too, plenty of sunshine will combine forces with this southerly breeze to allow temperatures to soar into the upper 70s to around 80F! Better yet, with the Jet-Stream well towards the north, not expecting any disturbances to move through...so expecting a quiet day with plenty of sunshine.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy, unusually warm and breezy. High: 80.

Synopsis: This day looks very similar...and possibly even warmer, as a strong shortwave trough and a front draws closer from the west late in the day. Some moisture in the upper-levels will increase in the form of cirrus clouds...but the lower and the mid atmosphere looks to remain dry. This will allow for a good amount of sunshine...and with a southwesterly breeze increasing due to a pressure gradient, expecting temperatures to really peak out. Again...without any upper-air disturbances, or lifting mechanisms, expecting a dry day.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy and cooler with scattered showers and perhaps some thunder. High: 66.

Synopsis: With this upper-air trough moving into SE Canada...the front looks to move into the region based on current model trends. Although the moisture and energy along this elongated front looks to get stretched out a bit...there still looks to be enough to initiate scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm. This front may take it's time moving through, though, as the upper-level winds begin to blow parallel to the frontal zone...this tends to slow their progress down a bit.

 

 

Have a great night and take care!

WCHS Meteorologist, Brandon Stover

 

 

 

 

 

 


Ten Day Forecast



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